you can't make anything without making chemicals first.
but chemical manufacturing is concentrating in China.
making “made in america” harder every year.
china took six of every ten dollars of growth this century.
NEW CHEMICAL SALES SINCE 2004, BY REGION$3.9tn total
china $2.3tneveryone else $0.5tneurope $0.4tnrest of asia $0.4tnusa $0.3tn
and now it dominates global chemical sales.
hover any region for its share, then and now.china · 2004 10% · 2024 46%united states · 2004 22% · 2024 12%eu27 · 2004 27% · 2024 13%rest of asia · 2004 18% · 2024 14%rest of europe · 2004 6% · 2024 4%japan · 2004 9% · 2024 3%latin america · 2004 4% · 2024 3%south korea · 2004 3% · 2024 3%india · 2004 2% · 2024 3%rest of the world · 2004 5% · 2024 2%africa · 2004 1% · 2024 1%
and it wasn't luck, it was an investment decision.
CAPITAL SPENDING ON NEW CAPACITY2023
china 46%everyone else 33%europe 12%usa 9%
CHEMICAL R&D SPENDING2023
china 32%everyone else 28%usa 22%europe 18%
STATE SUPPORT, PERCENT OF GDP2019
china
1.7%
europe
0.5%
usa
0.4%
sources · Cefic Facts & Figures 2025 · Cefic / Advancy, the competitiveness of the european chemical industry
the industry survived on iteration, not innovation, and over commoditized.
1892chlor-alkali
1913ammonia · haber-bosch
1935nylon 6,6
1942catalytic cracking
1957polypropylene
1964adiponitrile
2026amber
six decades of iteration, not replacement
an american cracker is nearly three times older than a chinese one.
AVERAGE AGE OF A STEAM CRACKERyears
europe
45
asia ex-china
31
usa
29
middle east
19
china
11
and replacing them means enormous investment into old technology.
we change the reactor, not the molecule.
the conversion is the same. what runs it is not.